Rules Engine
Your edge lives here — explicit rules for market settlement
Rules are your competitive advantage
Store exact settlement criteria, rounding methodologies, and procedural triggers. These rules determine how probabilities are calculated.
cpiv3•Updated 2026-01-10
CPI YoY Rounding Rule
Condition
When BLS releases CPI-U data, round YoY to 1 decimal place using standard rounding
Outcome Mapping
If rounded_value > threshold: YES resolves. Otherwise: NO resolves.
💡 BLS uses this exact methodology. Verified against historical data 2020-2025.
Confidence
95%
cpiv2•Updated 2026-01-08
CPI MoM Settlement
Condition
Use seasonally adjusted CPI-U MoM from BLS release
Outcome Mapping
If MoM_change > threshold: YES. Otherwise: NO.
💡 Note: Use seasonally adjusted, not NSA.
Confidence
90%
fedv1•Updated 2026-01-05
Fed Rate Decision
Condition
Use FOMC statement target rate range
Outcome Mapping
Rate cut if lower bound decreases. Rate hike if lower bound increases.
💡 Straightforward - use official FOMC statement.
Confidence
98%